Wales Wanting paid work |
Key points
- 'Unemployment' is only part of the overall picture of people who lack, but want, paid work: just over half of all those who lack, but want, paid work are considered to be 'economically inactive', either because they are able to started work immediately or because they are not actively seeking work. Lone parents and those who are sick or disabled usually count as 'economically inactive' rather than 'unemployed'. In other words, the people who lack but want paid work divide into two broad groups of roughly equal size, namely those who are officially (ILO) unemployed and those who are considered to be economically inactive but nevertheless want paid work. Neither of these groups is the same as the 'claimant count' numbers that are often published in the media, which effectively are the numbers of people in receipt of Jobseeker's Allowance. Although there is a strong overlap between 'officially unemployed' and 'claimant count', a 2008 paper from ONS listed a number of material differences, including: a) people whose partner is working; b) young people under 18 who are looking for work but do not take up the offer of a Youth Training place; c) students looking for part-time work or vacational work; and d) people who have left their job voluntarily. The reason that the media often use the claimant count numbers is simply that they are available on a more timely basis, particularly at a sub-regional level.
- In 2008, there were around 200,000 people of working-age who wanted to be in paid work but were not. Numbers fell between 1998 and 2004 (from 230,000 to 160,000) and then rose between 2004 and 2008. It represents 11% of the total population aged 16 to retirement. Note that these numbers are averages for each of the years; clearly, if the trend is rising (as it currently is) then the numbers at the end of the year will be higher than the average for the year as a whole.
- Of the 200,000 people, just less than half were officially unemployed and the rest were economically inactive. The numbers in each group show the same basic pattern over time, namely falling between 1998 and 2004 and then rising between 2004 and 2008. So, for example, the numbers officially unemployed have been rising since 2004, and not just since the start of the current recession.
- Around a fifth of those officially unemployed have been unemployed for more than a year (i.e. they are long-term unemployed).
- The proportion of the working-age population who lack, but want, paid work is somewhat higher in Wales than in most other parts of the UK.
- The proportion of the working-age population who are unemployed ranges from 6½% in Merthyr Tydfil to 2½% in Flintshire.
- The proportion who are economically inactive but want paid work ranges from 8½% in Blaenau Gwent to 4% in Conwy.
- Taken together, the proportion wanting work, whether 'unemployed' or 'economically inactive', is highest in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil and lowest in the North (Flintshire, Gwynedd and Conwy) plus Powys and Monmouthshire. The proportion in the highest (Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil at 14%) is twice that in the lowest (Flintshire).
- For women of all ages, and for older men, those who are economically inactive but wanting paid work outnumber the officially unemployed by at least two to one. Men aged under 35 are the only group where the officially unemployed clearly outnumber those who are economically inactive but wanting paid work.
- Unemployment rates decrease with age, for both men and women. The rates of those who are economically inactive but wanting paid work also decrease with age for women but increase with age for men.
Graph 1: Over time
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Graph 2: By age and sex
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Graph 3: Shares
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Graph 4: By local authority
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Map
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Graph 5: Compared to the United Kingdom
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Definitions and data sources
The first graph shows the number of people aged 16 to retirement who lack, but want, paid work. It is divided between the long-term unemployed, the short-term unemployed and those counted as 'economically inactive' who nevertheless want paid work.
'Unemployment' is the ILO definition, which is used for the official government unemployment numbers. It comprises all those with no paid work in the survey week who were available to start work in the next fortnight and who either looked for work in the last month or were waiting to start a job already obtained.
The economically inactive who want paid work includes people not available to start work for some time and those not actively seeking work. The data is based on a question asking the economically inactive whether they would like paid work or not.
The second graph shows how the proportions either unemployed or economically inactive but wanting paid work vary by age and sex.
The third graph shows the shares of those who lack, but want, paid work by group.
The fourth graph and map shows how the proportion of the population aged 16 to retirement who lack, but want, paid work varies by local authority.
The fifth graph shows how the proportion of the population of the population aged 16 to retirement who lack, but want, paid work in Wales compares with the rest of the United Kingdom, with the proportions who are unemployed and economically inactive but wanting paid work shown separately.
The data source for all the graphs bar the fourth is the Labour Force Survey (LFS). To improve statistical reliability, the figures for each year are the average for the four quarters of the relevant year. For the fourth graph and map, the data comes from the Annual Population Survey, which is effectively LFS with selected booster samples to compensate for small sample sizes in some authorities.
Overall adequacy of the indicator: high. The LFS is large, a well-established, quarterly government survey designed to be representative of the population as a whole.