Wales Educational attainment at age 16 |
Key points
- 15% of 16-year-olds in 1999/00 failed to obtain 5 or more GCSEs at any grade or vocational equivalent. By 2008/09, this proportion had fallen to 12%.
- 51% of 16-year-olds in 1999/90 failed to obtain the higher threshold of 5 or more GCSEs at grade C or above. By 2008/09, this proportion had fallen to 43%.
- The rate of reduction is - at around a fifth - similar for both thresholds.
- Because of precise issues of definition (what is included in 'equivalents', what schools are included, etc), it is not at all clear that the results in Wales are completely comparable to those in England (which is why there is no graph with such a comparison). Comparison with the equivalent indicator for England does, however, suggest that:
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Whereas the rate of reduction at the lower threshold in Wales has been similar to its English equivalent, the rate of reduction at the higher threshold in Wales has been much less than its English equivalent.
Whereas the proportion in Wales failing to obtain the higher threshold was similar to its equivalent in England in 1999/00, it is now noticeably higher.
The proportion in Wales failing to obtain the lower threshold has been higher than its equivalent in England throughout the last decade and, indeed, is higher than that in any of the English regions.
- The proportion of pupils failing to obtain at least 5 GCSEs at any grade was lower in 2008/09 than a decade earlier for all groups of schools, whatever their number of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds. In proportional terms, the fall has - at around a third - been similar for all groups of schools. In absolute terms, however, the fall has been greatest for those schools with high numbers of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds. So, for example, among the tenth of schools with the highest proportion entitled to free school meals, the proportion of pupils failing to get 5 GCSEs fell from 31% in 1998/99 to 20% in 2008/09, a fall of 11 percentage points. What all this means is that, whilst there is still substantial gap between performance in schools with many pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds and performance in other schools, this gap is less than it was a decade ago.
- Twice as many pupils in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil fail to obtain 5 or more GCSEs than in Powys and Vale of Glamorgan.
Graph 1: Over time
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Graph 2: By deprivation
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Graph 3: By local authority
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Definitions and data sources
The first graph shows the proportion of students (defined as pupils aged 15 at 31 August in the calendar year prior to sitting the exams) failing to obtain five or more GCSEs (or vocational equivalent) at grade C or above. The data is split between those who obtained less than five GCSEs (termed the 'Level 1' threshold by the Welsh Assembly) and those who obtained 5 or more GCSEs but less than 5 at grade C or above.
The data source for the first graph is the Welsh Assembly's publication entitled Examination results in Wales and its predecessors. The data covers all schools in Wales. The lower threshold - Level 1 - is understood to be effectively the same as 'fewer than 5 GCSEs of any grade (or equivalent)'. The higher threshold - 5 or more GCSEs (or equivalent) but less than 5 at grade C or above - has been chosen, rather than the closely related 'Level 2' threshold, as it provides a constant threshold over time. The proportion with no qualifications is not shown as this data is no longer published.
The second graph compares the proportion of students failing to obtain the Level 1 threshold for groups of schools with differing proportions of pupils receiving free school meals. For each year's data, both the results and the proportion receiving free school meals relate to that year. The grouping of the schools has been chosen to best illustrate the differing trends.
The data source for the second graph is school-level data from the National Assembly for Wales. It covers all local authority maintained secondary schools. Where either GCSE results or free school meal data for particular schools for particular years is not known, these schools have been excluded from the analysis for that year.
The third graph shows the proportion of students who fail to obtain five or more GCSEs or equivalent - the Level 1 threshold - by local education authority. To improve its statistical reliability, the data is the average for the latest three years.
Note that none of the graphs provide a comparison between Wales and the English regions. This is because, with Wales now publishing their results against Level 1 thresholds, it is not at all clear that the data is directly comparable.
Overall adequacy of the indicator: medium. While the data itself is sound enough, the choice of the particular levels of exam success is a matter of judgement.