Wales
Educational attainment at age 16
Key points
- 10% of 16-year-olds in 1996/97 failed to obtain any GCSEs whatsoever. By 2006/07, this proportion had fallen to 7%.
- 10% of 16 year-olds in 1996/97 obtained some, but fewer than five, GCSEs. By 2006/07, this proportion had also fallen to 7%.
- Almost all of the improvement in performance occurred in the period up to 1999/00, with no further improvement since then.
- 36% of 16-year-olds in 1996/97 obtained five or more GCSEs but did not obtain five 'good' GCSEs, that is, at grades A to C. By 2006/07, this proportion had fallen to 32%.
- In total, therefore, 56% of 16-year-olds failed to obtain five 'good' GCSEs in 1996/97. By 2006/07, this proportion had fallen to 46%.
- The proportion of pupils failing to obtain at least 5 GCSEs was markedly lower in 2007 than a decade earlier in almost all groups of schools, whatever their number of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds.
- More specifically, this proportion has come down by about a third over the decade, seemingly whatever the level of disadvantage. So among the tenth of schools with the highest proportion entitled to free school meals, the proportion of pupils failing to get 5 GCSEs fell from 37% in 1997 to 25% in 2007. Among the fifth of schools with the fewest pupils entitled to free school meals, the proportion fell from 9% to 6%.
- Over the period to 2000, there was a lessening in the gap between performance in schools with many pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds and performance in other schools. Since then, there has been little or no further narrowing of the gap which remains large: 6% among the schools with the fewest disadvantaged children compared with 25% among the schools with the most disadvantaged children.
- The proportion of pupils obtaining fewer than 5 GCSEs is much higher in Wales than in any of the English regions. What causes Wales to stand out is the high proportion getting no GCSEs – around 6% compared with 2-3% in the English regions.
- Twice as many pupils in Merthyr Tydfil fail to obtain 5 or more GCSEs than in Powys, Vale of Glamorgan or Gwynedd: a fifth compared with a tenth.
Graph 1: Over time
View Graph as PDF (resizeable) Right click to save large version of Graph as PNG
Graph 2: By deprivation
View Graph as PDF (resizeable) Right click to save large version of Graph as PNG
Graph 3: By LA
View Graph as PDF (resizeable) Right click to save large version of Graph as PNG
Graph 4: Compared with England
View Graph as PDF (resizeable) Right click to save large version of Graph as PNG
Definitions and data sources
The first graph shows the proportion of students (defined as pupils aged 15 at 31 August in the calendar year prior to sitting the exams) failing to obtain five or more GCSEs (or vocational equivalent) at grade C or above. The data is split between those who obtain no GCSE grades at all (either because they do not enter for exams or achieve no passes), those who do obtain some GCSEs but less than five, and those who obtain 5 or more GCSEs but less than 5 at grade C or above.
The data source for the first graph is the Welsh Assembly's publications entitled Schools in Wales: examination performance. The data covers all schools in Wales.
The second graph compares the proportion of students failing to obtain five or more GCSEs for groups of schools with differing proportions of pupils receiving free school meals. For each year's data, both the GCSE results and the proportion receiving free school meals relate to that year. The grouping of the schools has been chosen to best illustrate the differing trends.
The data source for the second graph is school-level data from the National Assembly for Wales on GCSE results for 15-year-olds and on the proportion of all the pupils in the school receiving free school meals. It covers all local authority maintained secondary schools. Where either GCSE results or free school meal data for particular schools for particular years is not known, these schools have been excluded from the analysis for that year.
The third graph compares, for the latest year, the proportion of students who fail to obtain five or more GCSEs (or vocational equivalent) by local education authority.
The data source for the first graph is the Welsh Assembly's publications entitled Schools in Wales: examination performance. The data covers all maintained schools in Wales. To improve its statistical reliability, the data is the average for the latest three years.
The fourth graph compares, for the latest year, the proportion of students in Wales failing to obtain five or more GCSEs (or vocational equivalent) with those in the English regions.
The data sources for the fourth graph are the National Assembly for Wales and Department for Children, Schools and Families (formerly DfES). The data covers all maintained schools.
Overall adequacy of the indicator: medium. While the data itself is sound enough, the choice of the particular levels of exam success is a matter of judgement.