United Kingdom
Excess winter deaths
Key points
- Each year, around 20,000 and 50,000 more people aged 65 or over in England and Wales die in winter months than in other months.
- The proportion of excess winter deaths amongst those aged 65 and over is similar in all regions.
- See the equivalent analysis for Scotland.
Graph 1: Over time
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Graph 2: By region
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Why this indicator was originally chosen
Older people occupy much of the substandard housing in Britain, and the link between ill health and housing is strong for this group. This is particularly important because many older people spend such a lot of time at home. Respiratory diseases are often caused or made worse by damp and cold conditions at home. Inefficient heating and insulation are factors driving the high level of winter deaths in Britain: there are 30,000-40,000 more deaths in winter than summer months, and old people make up the vast majority of that excess. Hypothermia: The Facts, Age Concern Briefing Paper Reference 2296, 1996. The indicator used here is the 'number of excess winter deaths' amongst older people.
Definitions and data sources
The first graph shows excess winter deaths each year in the 65 and over age group, where 'excess winter deaths' is defined as the difference between the number of deaths which occurred in winter (December to March) and the average number of deaths during the preceding four months (August to November) and the subsequent four months (April to July).
The second graph shows how the proportion of excess winter deaths among those in the 65 and over age group varies by region. This is done using something called the 'excess winter deaths index' calculated as excess winter deaths divided by the average non-winter deaths, expressed as a percentage. To improve statistical reliability, the data is the average for the latest three years.
The data source for both graphs is ONS mortality data and the data is for England and Wales.
Overall adequacy of the indicator: medium. Whilst the data sources used here are reliable ones, there is no data providing evidence of a direct causal relationship between winter deaths and energy inefficient housing.
External links
- See the 2001 Joseph Rowntree Foundation report entitled Cold comfort: The social and environmental determinants of excess winter deaths in England.
- See the ofgem 2005 social action strategy.
- See the National Energy Action site.
- See the Energy Saving Trust report entitled Health Impact Evaluation of Warm Front.
- See DTI fuel poverty site, the DTI/DEFRA fuel poverty strategy, the DWP site on Winter Fuel Payments and the eaga partnership site.
Relevant 2007 Public Service Agreements
None directly relevant.
Relevant government policies
The numbers
Graph 1
| Thousands | |
|---|---|
| 1990/91 | 35 |
| 1991/92 | 32 |
| 1992/93 | 24 |
| 1993/94 | 24 |
| 1994/95 | 25 |
| 1995/96 | 37 |
| 1996/97 | 45 |
| 1997/98 | 21 |
| 1998/99 | 44 |
| 1999/00 | 45 |
| 2000/01 | 23 |
| 2001/02 | 26 |
| 2002/03 | 22 |
| 2003/04 | 22 |
| 2004/05 | 29 |
| 2005/06 | 23 |
| 2006/07 | 22 |
Graph 2
| Excess winter deaths index | |
|---|---|
| East | 19% |
| East Midlands | 18% |
| London | 19% |
| North East | 18% |
| North West | 18% |
| South East | 19% |
| South West | 20% |
| Wales | 18% |
| West Midlands | 21% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 18% |