United Kingdom
Without a basic qualification at age 19
Key points
- Depending on the data source, some of the statistics below relate to an educational threshold of NVQ2 or its academic equivalent (e.g. 5 or more good GCSEs) whilst others relate to a threshold of 'Level 2' qualifications. Whilst these two thresholds are similar, they are not quite identical. In the interest of simplicity, however, the key points below refer to both of them as 'NVQ2 or equivalent', with the individual graphs then stating which of the two is applicable to each of the analyses.
- Labour Force Survey data suggests that around one in four 19-year-olds lack NVQ2 or equivalent and one in twelve have no qualifications at all.
- The Labour Force Survey data also suggests that these proportions have remained broadly unchanged throughout the last decade. However, the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) has undertaken substantial analysis of administrative data which has concluded that this proportion in England has actually been reducing rapidly in recent years as there has been an increasing number of vocational qualifications which the Labour Force Survey fails to capture.
- Although a half of young adults have not obtained NVQ2 or equivalent at age 16, this proportion reduces to a quarter by age 21.
- Fewer 19-year-old girls lack NVQ2 or equivalent than boys: around 19% lacking NVQ2 at age 19 compared to 28% for boys.
- The proportion of 19-year-olds lacking NVQ2 or equivalent is somewhat lower in the South East than elsewhere in England.
- The lower a person's qualifications, the more likely they are to be unemployed and the more likely they are to be in low-paid work. See the indicator on risks by level of qualification.
Graph 1: Over time
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Graph 2: By gender
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Graph 3: By age
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Graph 4: By region
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Why this indicator was originally chosen
This indicator concerns the lack of educational qualifications as a barrier to work. As shown in the indicator on the impact of education and work, those with no qualifications are more at risk of not being in paid work and of receiving low rates of pay. Furthermore, individuals with no or very low qualifications have seen their earnings increase less rapidly in comparison to other groups in the workforce. For example, Labour market and skill trends 1997/98, Skills and Enterprise Network, DfEE, 1997, page 79. As well as being an immediate issue, this also has long term implications for reduced earnings potential.
The indicator also reflects the changes in the labour market which have emerged as a result of technological developments. Green, F, Ashton, D, Burchell, B, Davies, B and Felstead, A, 'Are British workers getting more skilled?', in Atkinson, A and Hills, J (eds) Exclusion, employment and opportunity, CASE paper 4, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion: London School of economics, 1998, page 89. There has been "an unambiguous increase in work skills from 1986 to 1997. Whereas 62% of jobs required at least some qualification in 1986, by 1997, this has risen to 69%. For 'high level' qualifications (anything above A-level), the proportion rose from 20% to 24%". This research also noted (page 98) that the numbers of people in work in Britain possessing no qualifications, dropped from 28% in 1986 to 19% in 1997. The report also points out (page 123) that the types of skills increasingly needed include problem solving-skills, communication and social skills, and computing skills; alongside this shift, there has been a reduction in the use of manual skills - and "at both ends of the occupational spectrum there is evidence of rising skills". A greater proportion of jobs require a broader range and higher level of skills, and a greater proportion now require at least some form of qualification.
More generally, this subject continues one of the core themes of the chapter on children – namely, that education in an important element in reducing the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.
Definitions and data sources
The first graph shows the proportion of 19-year-olds without a basic qualification, with the data shown separately for those without NVQ2 or equivalent and those without any GCSEs at grade G or above. Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) equivalence scales have been used to translate academic qualifications into their vocational equivalents. So, for example, 'NVQ2 or equivalent' includes those with five GCSEs at grade C or above, GNVQ level 2, two AS levels or one A level. In line with these equivalence scales, 35% of those with an 'other qualification' are considered to have NVQ2 or equivalent and a further 10% are considered to have NVQ3 or equivalent. The data source is the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and relates to the United Kingdom. The figures for each year are the average for the four quarters of the relevant year.
DCSF has recently concluded that, at least in England, LFS appears generally to overstate academic achievement and, furthermore, that the range and diversity of vocational qualifications has grown in recent years and that it is difficult for LFS to accurately capture these. They therefore prefer to use newly introduced administrative sources to analyse levels of qualifications among young adults. The graph therefore also shows this data, noting that the data from DCSF is for England only, only goes back to 2004, and that the Level 2 threshold is similar, but not quite identical, to the NVQ2 threshold.
Using the DCSF data, the second graph shows, for those pupils born in 1987, what proportion has achieved certain educational levels at each age from 16 (i.e. in 2003) to 21 (i.e. in 2008). The particular educational levels shown are below Level 2, Level 2 but not Level 3, and Level 3 or above, where Levels 2 and 3 are similar, but not quite identical, to NVQ2 and NVQ3 respectively.
Also using the DCSF data, the third and fourth graph show, for the latest year, how proportion of 19-year-olds without a Level 2 qualification varies by gender and region respectively.
Overall adequacy of the indicator: limited. The LFS is a well-established, quarterly survey designed to be representative of the population as a whole and is the only source for time series data. However, a) the sample sizes for 19-year-olds are very small and b) as discussed above, it appears that the qualifications data in LFS at age 19 has some shortcomings.
External links
- See the Leitch 2006 report for HM Treasury entitled Prosperity for all in the global economy - world class skills and the related 2007 New Policy Institute paper entitled UK skills: step change or leap into the unknown?
- See the Connexions site and the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority NVQ site.
- See the 2004 Department for Children, Schools and Families review of the use of the Labour Force Survey to analyse this issue and their consequent 2007 analysis.
Relevant 2007 Public Service Agreements
Overall aim: Raise the educational achievement of all children and young people
Lead department
Department for Children, Schools and Families.
Official national targets
Increase the proportion of young children achieving a total points score of at least 78 across all 13 Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) scales - with at least 6 in each of the communications, language and literacy and language (CLL) and personal, social and emotional development (PSED) scales - by an additional 4 percentage points from 2008 results, by 2011.
Increase the proportion achieving level 4 in both English and maths at Key Stage 2 to 78% by 2011.
Increase the proportion achieving level 5 in both English and maths at Key Stage 3 to 74% by 2011.
Increase the proportion achieving 5A*-C GCSEs (and equivalent), including GCSEs in both English and maths, at Key Stage 4 to 53% by 2011.
Increase the proportion of young people achieving Level 2 at age 19 to 82% by 2011.
Increase the proportion of young people achieving Level 3 at age 19 to 54% by 2011.
Previous 2004 targets
Improve children's communication, social and emotional development so that, by 2008, 50% of children reach a good level of development at the end of the Foundation Stage and reduce inequalities between the level of development achieved by children in the 20% most disadvantaged areas and the rest of England.
Raise standards in English and maths so that:
- by 2006, 85% of 11 year olds achieve level 4 or above and (not with this level of performance sustained to 2008; and
- by 2008, the number of schools in which fewer than 65% of pupils achieve level 4 or above reduced by 40%.Raise standards in English, maths, ICT and science in secondary education so that:
- by 2007 85% of 14 year olds achieve level 5 or above in English, maths and ICT ( 80% in science) nationally with this level of performance sustained to 2008; and
- by 2008, in all schools at least 50% of pupils achieve level 5 or above in each of English, maths and science.
By 2008, 60% of those aged 16 to achieve the equivalent of 5 GCSEs at grades A* to C; and in all schools at least 20% of pupils to achieve this standard by 2004, rising to 25% by 2006 and 30% by 2008.
Increase the proportion of 19 year olds who achieve at least Level 2 by 3 percentage points between 2004 to 2006, and a further 2 percentage points between 2006 and 2008, and increase the proportion of young people who achieve level 3.
Overall aim: Narrow the gap in educational achievement between children from low income and disadvantaged backgrounds and their peers
Lead department
Department for Children, Schools and Families.
Official national targets
Improve the average (mean) score of the lowest 20% of the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) results, so that the gap between that average score and the median score is reduced by an additional 3 percentage points from 2008 results, by 2011.
Increase the proportion of pupils progressing by 2 levels in English and maths at each of Key Stages 2, 3 and 4 by 2011:
- KS2: English 9 percentage points, maths 11 percentage points.
- KS3: English 16 percentage points, maths 12 percentage points.
- KS4: English 15 percentage points, maths 13 percentage points.
Increase the proportion of children in care at Key Stage 2 achieving level 4 in English to 60% by 2011, and level 4 in mathematics to 55% by 2011.
Increase the proportion of children in care achieving 5A*-C GCSEs (and equivalent) at Key Stage 4 to 20% by 2011.
Other indicators of progress
Achievement gap between pupils eligible for Free School Meals and their peers at Key Stages 2 and 4.
Proportion of young people from low-income backgrounds progressing to higher education.
Relevant government policies
- Improving participation and attainment of 14- to 19-year-olds
- Education maintenance allowance
- Connexions
The numbers
Graph 1
| Year | Labour Force Survey estimates for the UK | DCSF estimates for England | Lacks NVQ2 or better but has some GCSEs | Lacks an GCSEs at grade G or above | Lacks Level 2 or better |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 21% | 8% | no data |
| 1998 | 19% | 8% | no data |
| 1999 | 18% | 8% | no data |
| 2000 | 17% | 8% | no data |
| 2001 | 17% | 8% | no data |
| 2002 | 19% | 8% | no data |
| 2003 | 19% | 8% | no data |
| 2004 | 20% | 8% | 34% |
| 2005 | 19% | 9% | 31% |
| 2006 | 17% | 8% | 29% |
| 2007 | 17% | 8% | 26% |
| 2008 | 18% | 8% | 23% |
Graph 2
| Age | Without Level 2 | With Level 2 but not Level 3 | With Level 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| At age 16 | 48% | 52% | 0% |
| At age 17 | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| At age 18 | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| At age 19 | 29% | 25% | 47% |
| At age 20 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| At age 21 | 24% | 24% | 51% |
Graph 3
| Year | Without Level 2 |
|---|---|
| Male | 28% |
| Female | 19% |
Graph 4
| Region | Without Level 2 |
|---|---|
| East | 23% |
| East Midlands | 27% |
| London | 23% |
| North East | 24% |
| North West | 26% |
| South East | 20% |
| South West | 23% |
| West Midlands | 25% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 27% |